Antepartum predictors of the development of type 2 diabetes in Latino women 11-26 months after pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes

In this study, we sought to identify antepartum characteristics that predict the de novo development of diabetes 11-26 months after the index pregnancy in a carefully characterized cohort of women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Oral and frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs and FSIGTs), hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamps with labeled glucose, and body composition studies were performed on 91 islet cell antibody-negative Latino women with GDM during the third trimester of pregnancy. The women were documented to be diabetes-free within 6 months postpartum. Their diabetes status was ascertained again between 11 and 26 months postpartum. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of the development of diabetes within that interval. Fourteen of the women developed diabetes by World Health Organization criteria 11-26 months after delivery of the index pregnancy. Three antepartum variables were independent predictors of diabetes: the 1-h postchallenge plasma glucose concentration from the 100-g OGTT at which GDM was diagnosed (higher = increased risk; P = 0.003); an index of pancreatic beta-cell compensation for insulin resistance, defined as the product of the 30-min incremental plasma insulin:glucose ratio on a 75-g OGTT and the insulin sensitivity index from a hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (lower = increased risk, P = 0.009); and the basal glucose production rate after an overnight fast (higher = increased risk; P = 0.04). We conclude that postchallenge hyperglycemia, poor pancreatic beta-cell compensation for insulin resistance, and elevated endogenous glucose production during pregnancy precede the development of type 2 diabetes in young Latino women by at least 1-2 years.