儿童术中低体温列线图预测模型构建

目的建立儿童术中低体温列线图预测模型,为术中儿童低体温评估与预防提供参考。方法选取接受手术治疗的1 086例患儿,在医院病历系统中收集相关资料。采用χ²检验、秩和检验和logistic回归分析确定影响因素,利用R软件绘制儿童术中低体温列线图预测模型。结果儿童术中低体温发生率为17.31%;年龄、术前体温≤36.9℃、血红蛋白≤118.5 g/L、禁食时间≥6 h、麻醉时间>62.6 min,是儿童术中低体温发生的独立影响因素。列线图预测儿童术中低体温风险的ROC曲线下方面积为0.698（95%CI:0.598～0.789）。结论儿童术中低体温发生率较高,应用列线图模型可快速预测低体温发生概率,及时采取针对性干预,保障患儿手术安全。

A nomogram model to predict intraoperative hypothermia in children

Objective To develop a nomogram model to predict intraoperative hypothermia in children, and to provide reference for assessment and prophylaxis of hypothermia during surgery in pediatric patients.Methods A total of 1 086 children undergoing surgical treatment were included in this study and their data were collected through medical records.Chi-square test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and logistic regression analysis were performed to determine the risk factors, then R software was utilized to develop a nomogram prediction model.Results The incidence of hypothermia during surgery was 17.31%. Age, preoperative body temperature ≤36.9 degrees, hemoglobin ≤118.5 g/L, fasting duration ≥6 h, and anesthesia duration >62.6 min were independent risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia. An area under ROC curve in our nomogram reached 0.698(95%CI:0.598-0.789).Conclusion The prevalence of hypothermia during surgery in children was relatively high, and our nomogram could predict the probability of hypothermia, thus to help medical staff take targeted interventions and ensure safety of children.