2021年5月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

  目的  评估2021年5月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。  方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。  结果  预计5月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将超过新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）疫情大流行前5年的平均水平。 我国境内发生新冠病毒境外输入及续发本地传播风险持续存在，在我国防控策略未改变的情况下，随着疫苗接种加速和气温回升，5月面临疫情输入造成本地传播的风险可能与4月类似（或有所降低）。 全国布鲁氏菌病高于2020年以及前5年平均水平，预计5月将进一步升高。 5月将进入食物中毒事件高发月份，预计以微生物性事件为主，死亡原因则以有毒动植物及毒蘑菇中毒为主。  结论  特别关注新冠肺炎，重点关注布病，一般关注食物中毒。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,May 2021

  Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in May 2021.  Methods  An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.  Results  It is expected that public health emergency events in May 2021 would be higher than the same period of 5 years’ average level before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The risk of importation and local transmission of COVID-19 in May might be similar with April 2021(or lower), as the prevention and control strategy remains unchanged in China, and with accelerating vaccination and rising temperature. It is predicted that the epidemic level of brucellosis would continue to increase and higher than the average level of 5 years before. The food poisoning events would be on the rise and mainly caused by microbe, and the deaths of food poisoning would be mainly caused by poisonous animal, plants and mushrooms.  Conclusion  Special attention should be paid to COVID-19. Major attention should be paid to the Brucellosis. General attentions should be paid to food poisoning.