2004－2016年浙江省登革热疫情时空聚集性分析

目的 探测2004 — 2016年浙江省登革热疫情的时空聚集性分布，为制定登革热的防控策略提供参考依据。 方法 以2004 — 2016年浙江省登革热病例为研究对象，运用SaTScan软件进行时空扫描统计分析，使用ArcGIS软件对登革热总疫情和散发疫情的地区分布及时空扫描统计分析结果进行可视化展示。 结果 时空扫描统计分析结果显示，2004 — 2016年浙江省登革热总体疫情共有2个聚集区（ P＜0.05），分别为义乌市（2009–08 –01至2009 –09–30）和慈溪市（2004 –09–01至2004–10 –31）；散发疫情共有1个一类聚集区和2个二类聚集区（P＜0.05），分别为义乌市和浦江县（2012–08–01至2016–12–31）、杭州市市区（2013 –07–01至2016–11–30）和宁波市市区（2013 –07–01至2016–10–31）。 结论 义乌市、杭州市市区和宁波市市区是登革热输入的高危地区，输入风险在不断增加，浙江省应制定有效的登革热预防控制策略。

Analysis on spatial and temporal clustering of dengue fever epidemic in Zhejiang, 2004?2016

Objective To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue fever in Zhejiang province from 2004 to 2016 and provide scientific evidence for dengue fever prevention and control. Methods The information of dengue fever cases of Zhejiang province from 2004 to 2016 was collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Software SaTScan was used to analyze the spatial and temporal clustering of dengue fever cases, and software ArcGIS was used for the result visualization. Results Spatial and temporal scan statistics detected 2 clusters (P＜0.05) of dengue cases in Zhejiang during 2004–2016. The class Ⅰ cluster was in Yiwu (1 August 2009 to 30 September 2009) and the class Ⅱ cluster was in Cixi (1 September 2004 to 31 October 2004). Sporadic outbreaks had one class I cluster in Yiwu and Pujiang (1 August 2012 to 31 December 2016), and two class Ⅱ clusters in the urban areas of Ningbo (1 July 2013 to 31 October 2016) and Hangzhou (1 July 2013–30 November 2016). Conclusion The distribution pattern of dengue fever in Zhejiang from 2004 to 2016 showed clustering trend. Yiwu and the urban areas of Ningbo and Hangzhou were at high risk for dengue fever importation. It is necessary to develop effective dengue fever prevention and control strategy in Zhejiang