气象因素对广州市虫媒传染病发病影响研究

目的 研究广东省广州市气压、气温、气湿、降水量、日照和风速等气象因素对虫媒传染病消长的影响。方法 根据广州市2011-2014年虫媒传染病发病数据和同期气温、气湿等气象数据，使用Spearman相关分析和多元逐步回归法进行分析。结果 单因素和多因素分析结果显示，气温与登革热（RR=1.013）、恙虫病（RR=1.013）发病呈正相关，与流行性出血热（RR=0.998）发病呈负相关；相对湿度与登革热（RR=0.916）发病呈负相关；降水量与登革热（RR=0.998）发病呈负相关；平均风速与登革热（RR=0.951）发病呈负相关；日照时数与登革热（RR=1.006）、恙虫病（RR=1.002）发病呈正相关；而各气象因素对钩端螺旋体病的发病影响均较小。日平均气温达到27.7℃时，登革热滞后0 d RR值最大为5.95；日平均气温为28.0℃时，恙虫病滞后5 d RR值最大为4.20；日平均气温为15.2℃时，流行性出血热滞后10 d RR值最大为1.00。结论 气象因素会影响虫媒传染病的发病，其中气温、气压是影响多数虫媒传染病传播与流行的主要因素。

Influence of meteorological factors on arbo infectious diseases in Guangzhou

Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of arbo infectious disease in Guangzhou, Guangdong province. Methods We collected the incidence data of arbo infectious disease and the meteorological data (including air pressure, temperature, air humidity, rainfall, wind rate and sun hour) in Guangzhou from 2011-2014. The data was analyzed by the methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression. Results Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that air temperature was positively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=1.013), scrub typhus (RR=1.013), but negatively correlated with the incidence of hemorrhagic fever (RR=0.998); humidity was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.916); rainfall was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.998); wind rate was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.951); sun hour was positively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=1.006) and scrub typhus (RR=1.002); but the incidence of leptospirosis had little correlation with all the meteorological factors. The risk of dengue fever was highest when daily mean air temperature was 27.7℃ on lag 0 day (RR=5.95); the risk of scrub typhus was highest when daily mean air temperature was 28.0℃ on lag 5 day (RR=4.20); and the risk of hemorrhagic fever was highest when the daily mean air temperature was 15.2℃(RR=1.00). Conclusion Meteorological factors can influence the incidence of arbo infectious diseases, especially air temperature and air pressure.