A more realistic approach to the cumulative pregnancy rate after in-vitro fertilization

As most studies overestimate the cumulative pregnancy rate,a method is proposed to estimate a more realistic cumulativepregnancy rate by taking into account the reasons for an earlycessation of treatment with in-vitro fertilization (IVF). Threemethods for calculating cumulative pregnancy rates were compared.The first method assumed that those who stopped treatment hadno chance at all of pregnancy. The second method, the one usedmost often, assumed the same probability of pregnancy for thosewho stopped as for those who continued. The third method assumedthat only those who stopped treatment, because of a medicalindication, had no chance at all of pregnancy and that the otherswho stopped had the same probability of pregnancy as those whocontinued treatment Data were used from 616 women treated atthe University Hospital Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.The cumulative pregnancy rates after five initiated IVF cyclesfor the three calculation methods were in the ranges 37–51%for the positive pregnancy test result, 33–55% for a clinicalpregnancy and 30–56% for an ongoing pregnancy. As expected,the first method underestimated the cumulative pregnancy rateand the second overestimated it The third method produced themost realistic cumulative pregnancy rates.