External validation of OroGrams as a predictive model for overall and progression-free survival in Scottish patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study |
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| Authors: | A. Mentel C.M. Douglas J. Montgomery J. McMahon |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Medicine, Dentistry and Nursing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK;2. Department of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Glasgow, UK;3. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Glasgow, UK;1. King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust;2. University College London Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, Division of Surgery and Interventional Science;3. University College London Hospital Foundation Trust;4. Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust;5. University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Anaesthesia and Preoperative Medicine;6. University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust;7. University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust;1. The Welsh Centre for Cleft Lip & Palate, Morriston Hospital Swansea, UK;2. Swansea Bay Health Board;3. Cleft Care Scotland, Royal Hospital for Children, Glasgow;1. Division of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery, Dental Department, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan;2. College of Dentistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan;1. Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom;2. Human Anatomy Centre, Anatomy Building, Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom;3. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom;4. Department of Anaesthesia, James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough, United Kingdom;5. University of Sunderland School of Medicine, Sunderland, United Kingdom;1. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Maulana Azad Institute of Dental Sciences, MAMC Complex, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi, 110002, India;2. Bensups Hospital, Sector – 12, Dwarka, New Delhi, 110002, India |
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| Abstract: | ![]()
The aims of this study were to externally validate the OroGrams (oropharyngeal cancer survival calculator) nomogram in a Scottish cohort with high endemic smoking rates, and to compare survival rates with the original validation cohort. A retrospective cohort study in Greater Glasgow and Clyde ENT and OMFS departments was performed to investigate survival outcomes of patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) from January 2012 - December 2017. The main outcome measures were progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS), and Kaplan Meier curves. The predictive accuracy of OroGrams was investigated for survival probabilities at one, three, and five years. Smoking and HPV-negative cancer rates were significantly higher in Scottish patients than in the UK consortium cohort. A greater proportion of Scottish patients had advanced UICC8 stages. PFS in patients with HPV-negative cancer appeared better in the Scottish cohort than in the original cohort. Calculated mean standardised Brier scores for PFS and OS were below 0.2 at all three follow-up points, suggesting good overall prognostic accuracy, but there was wide variation between predictive accuracy in individual patients. OroGrams shows prognostic accuracy at one-year follow up in Scotland. The accuracy decreases with longer follow-up periods. |
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| Keywords: | Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma Prognosis Survival Calculator HPV-status OroGrams |
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