| Prediction of Trend between Water Environment Pollution of D Lake and Death Rate of Malignancy in Population |
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| 引用本文： | 李龙,吴春松. Prediction of Trend between Water Environment Pollution of D Lake and Death Rate of Malignancy in Population[J]. 华中科技大学学报(医学英德文版), 2003, 23(4): 420-422. DOI: 10.1007/BF02829434 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李龙 吴春松 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Environmental Medicine，Department of Mathematics Tongji Medical College，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430030，Tongji Medical College，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430030 |
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| 基金项目： | ThisprojectwassupportedbyagrantfromtheNational“TheNinthFive YearPlan”ScienceandTechnologyKeyProjectofChina (No .96 9110 70 2 0 4 ) |
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| 摘 要： | Waterisoneofthemostnecessarybasicsforhu manlifeandproductionactivities .Alotofattentionhasbeenpaidto predictionbetweenwaterenviron mentpollutionandpopulationhealth[1- 3] .Thee cosystemwherehumanexistsisverycomplexandthemechanismsbywhichwatercontaminationaffectpopulationhealtharealsoverycomplicated .Re searcheshaveshownthatbladdercancer ,stomachcancer ,coloncancer ,rectumcancer ,esophaguscan cerandlivercancerareamongthecommoncancerswhichhaveshownstatisticalsignificancebetweenpopulationandwatero…
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| 收稿时间： | 2001-02-23 |
Prediction of trend between water environment pollution of D lake and death rate of malignancy in population |
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| Li Long,Wu Chunsong. Prediction of trend between water environment pollution of D lake and death rate of malignancy in population[J]. Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Medical sciences, 2003, 23(4): 420-422. DOI: 10.1007/BF02829434 |
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| Authors: | Li Long Wu Chunsong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Environmental Medicine, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030
2. Department of Mathematics, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030 |
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| Abstract: | Summary Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM(1, N) model for death rate of malignancy [MR(t+1)=(9.9987E1+5.0001E2+10.8994E3+1.1114E4+165.1029) · e−0.0070t−9.9987E1−5.0001E2−10.8994E3−1.1114E4] and GM(1. 1) model for related factors [E1(t+1)=52.1214−46.9468e−0.0058t, E2(t+1)=4.6114−4.5664e0.0015t, E3(t+1)=1.1389−1.1212e0.0065t, E4(t+1)=554.5867−549.8006e0.0016t], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted. LI Long, male, born in 1962, Associate Professor This project was supported by a grant from the National “The Ninth Five-Year Plan” Science and Technology Key Project of China (No. 96911070204). |
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| Keywords: | death rate of malignancy grey system water environment pollution |
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