The Nottingham Prognostic Index: five- and ten-year data for all-cause Survival within a Screened Population

Introduction

The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is an established prognostication tool in the management of breast cancers (BCs). Latest ten-year survival data have demonstrated an improved outlook for each NPI category and the latest UK five- and ten-year survival from BC has been reported to be 85% and 77%, respectively. We compared survival of each NPI category for BCs diagnosed within the national breast screening service in Wales (Breast Test Wales (BTW)) to the latest data, and reviewed its validity in unselected cases within a screened population.

Methods

All women screened between 1998 and 2001 within BTW were included. The NPI score for each cancer was calculated using the size, nodal status, and grade of the primary tumour. Survival data (all-cause) were calculated after ten years of follow-up.

Results

In the three-year screening period, 199,082 women were screened. A total of 1,712 cancers were diagnosed, and 1,546 had data available for calculating the NPI. Overall five-year and ten-year survival was 94% and 82%, respectively.

Conclusions

Overall five-year and ten-year survival (all-cause) has improved even when compared with UK data for BC-specific survival. We found that the NPI remains valid for BC treatment, and that our data provide a reference for updating the all-cause survival of women diagnosed with BCs within a screened population.