| 广州市区鼻咽癌死亡率时间序列分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴进军 候文光. 广州市区鼻咽癌死亡率时间序列分析及预测[J]. 中国卫生统计, 1993, 10(3): 15-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴进军 候文光 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东医学院附院肿瘤防治中心，广东医学院附院肿瘤防治中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对广州市区1974-1984年鼻咽癌死亡率进行时间序列分析，表明1974年以来鼻咽癌死亡率呈相对稳定水平。男性鼻咽癌死亡率呈周期性变动，周期数约为3，振幅约为1．5／10万，应用改进的灰色预测模型对鼻咽癌死亡率进行预测，并提出相应的鼻咽癌防治策略。
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| 关 键 词： | 鼻咽癌 死亡率 市区 男性 广州市 防治策略 灰色预测模型 时间序列分析 变动 周期性 |
Analysis and Forecast of the Time Series of the Death Rate of the Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Guangzou Urban Districts |
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| Wu Jinjun,Hou Wenguang,Hospital of Guangdong Medical College,Guangdong. Analysis and Forecast of the Time Series of the Death Rate of the Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Guangzou Urban Districts[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 1993, 10(3): 15-18 |
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| Authors: | Wu Jinjun Hou Wenguang Hospital of Guangdong Medical College Guangdong |
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| Abstract: | Author used the method of time serices toanalyse the death rate of nasopharyngeal car-cinome in Guangzou urban districts in 1974~1984. It was showed that death rate of nasoph-aryngeal carcinoma was stable relatively since1974.The death rate of the nasopharyngeal car-cinoma in men was the periodical fluctuation.The periodicity was about three and the amp-litude was 1.5/10~5 (standardized by Chinesestandard population).Author forecasted thedeath rate of nasopheryngeal carcinoma withthe improving grey forecast model. It was putforward the relative tactics in prophylaxis andtreatment of the nasopharyngeal carcinoma inthis paper. |
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| Keywords: | Nasopharyngeal carcinoma Analysis of time series Forecast Grey model |
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