无锡市血吸虫病传播阻断后风险评估指标体系研究

目的建立无锡市血吸虫病传播阻断后风险评估指标体系,为制定防控政策提供参考。方法采用文献法初步构建无锡市血吸虫病传播阻断后风险评估指标体系框架,通过2轮德尔菲法对备选指标进行评分和筛选,最终建立风险评估指标体系并计算各指标的归一化权重和组合权重。结果经过两轮专家咨询,建立了包括3个一级指标和15个二级指标的风险评估指标体系。自然环境、重点人群和社会环境等3个一级指标的归一化权重分别为0.370 6、0.292 9和0.336 5。二级指标中流动人口的组合权重最高,为0.125 2,散养家畜的组合权重最低,为0.037 1。一级指标的专家权威度系数范围为0.91~0.93,二级指标的专家权威度系数范围为0.79~0.92。结论本研究建立的无锡市血吸虫病传播阻断后风险评估指标体系具有一定的科学性和权威性,为血吸虫病传播风险评估提供了依据。

Study on risk assessing indicator system after schistosomiasis transmission interruption in Wuxi City

Objective To establish a risk assessing indicator system after the transmission interruption of schistosomiasis in Wuxi City， so as to provide evidences for formulating strategies on schistosomiasis control and prevention. Methods A primary risk assessing indicator system was established based on the literature review. Alternative indicators were scored and screened to establish a final indicator system through two rounds of Delphy method and the related normalized weights and combined weights were also calculated. Results The risk assessing indicator system was established through two rounds of expert consultation including 3 first grade indicators and 15 second grade indicators. Among the first grade indicators， the normalized weights of natural environment， key populations and social environment were 0.370 6， 0.292 9 and 0.336 5， respectively. Among the second grade indicators， the migrant population accounted for the highest combined weight of 0.125 2 compared to domestic animal of 0.037 1. The authority degree among the first grade indicators was between 0.91 and 0.93， while the authority degree among the second grade indicators was between 0.79 and 0.92. Conclusion The scientific and authoritative risk assessing indicator system after the transmission interruption of schistosomiasis is established， which provides the evidences for risk assessment on schistosomiasis transmission in Wuxi City.