Polycystic Kidney Disease Re-evaluated: A Population-based Study

A genetic register of all known cases of autosomal dominantpolycystic kidney disease occurring in South and Mid-Wales hasbeen established. In a population of 2.1 million, 209 familieswith affected members were identified, 303 of whom are currentlyalive, 70 on renal replacement therapy. An additional 551 caseswould be predicted amongst family members at 50 per cent and25 per cent risk, giving an apparent prevalence of 1:2459 inthe general population. Five possible new mutations were seenwhere adults with phenotypic autosomal dominant polycystic kidneydisease had both parents alive, age > 55 years with no cystsvisible on ultrasound. The take-on rate for renal replacementtherapy increased during 1970–79 but has apparently reacheda plateau of 4.8 cases per million population per year overthe last 8 years, despite a rapidly increasing acceptance ofuraemic patients as a whole (72/10⁶/year in 1988–89).Considerably more patients with autosomal dominant polycystickidney disease aged over 50 years were started on treatmentin 1980–89 than in 1970–79, but the survival overallimproved with time. All cases of autosomal dominant polycystickidney disease reaching end-stage renal disease are now beingtreated, but the apparent clinical prevalence of this conditionin our region is less than half the supposed gene frequency,suggesting that undiagnosed cases have a benign prognosis.