应用时间序列模型预测安康市细菌性痢疾的发病率

目的探讨应用ARIMA模型预测细菌性痢疾发病率的可行性,为细菌性痢疾的防治提供科学依据。方法应用SPSS13.0对安康市2005～2009年细菌性痢疾的月发病率进行ARIMA模型拟合,并用所得到的模型对2010年细菌性痢疾的月发病率进行预测,将预测值与实际值进行比较。结果 ARIMA（0,1,1）×（0,1,1）12模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的发病率序列,对2010年月发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势。结论时间序列模型可以模拟细菌性痢疾发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势。

Prediction of bacillary dysentery incidence in Ankang City with time series model

Objective To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model to predict the bacillary dysentery incidence and to provide basis forcontrol of bacillary dysentery. Methods SPSS13.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA mode based on the bacillary dysentery from 2005 to 2009 in Ankang City,Shanxi Province. Then the constructed model was used to predict the bacillary dysentery in 2010 and the prediction was compared with the actual incidence. Results Model of ARIMA （0,1,1）×（0,1,1 ）12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous months.The fit values of incidence in 2010 were consistent with the actual incidence. Conclusions The method of time series analysis can be used to fit exactly the changes of bacillary dysentery.