Primary neck management among patients with cancer of the oral cavity without clinical nodal metastases: A decision and sensitivity analysis

BACKGROUND: A standardized neck management strategy for oral cancer patients without clinical nodal metastases remains to be established. Consequently, a decision and sensitivity analysis of two neck management protocols, involving either prophylactic neck dissection or careful observation, was conducted using the Oral Cancer Registry of Kyushu, Japan. METHODS: We calculated probabilities of subclinical nodal metastases and 5-year survival using the registry data. A two-way sensitive analysis was conducted using the probabilities and parameters of the complete nodal metastasis resection rate (x) and a utility rating that describes the health state induced by dissection (y) compared with the neck condition in a careful-observation group. RESULTS: We solved the threshold curve for y and x for the expected utility between the two groups. The results showed that prophylactic neck dissection must guarantee a complete resection of subclinical nodal metastases with no disadvantage to health state to be evaluated as equally satisfactory as careful observation. CONCLUSIONS: Careful observation involving standardized systematic preoperative and postoperative screening of the neck seems preferable to prophylactic neck dissection for oral cancer patients without subclinical nodal metastases.