应用集中度与圆形分布法分析2012—2018年长沙市手足口病季节性特征

目的 探讨长沙市2012—2018年手足口病季节性特征，为制定手足口病防控措施提供科学依据。方法 对长沙市2012—2018年手足口病监测数据进行统计分析，采用集中度和圆形分布法分析其季节性特征。结果 2012—2018年长沙市共报告205 988例病例，年均报告发病率是389.91/10万。发病人群以<4岁儿童(83.34%)为主，以散居儿童(75.29%)和幼托儿童(21.71%)为主。发病集中度M=0.32具有一定的季节性；圆形分布r=0.31,α=175.82°(87.02°,264.62°)(Z=18 648.533,P<0.001),发病高峰日为6月27日，流行高峰期为3月29日—9月25日。结论 2012—2018年长沙市手足口病发病具有一定的季节性，应在该疾病流行期前和流行期间加强重点人群防控。

Concentration and circular distribution-based analyses of seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Changsha City, 2012-2018

Objective To explore the seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Changsha City from 2012 to 2018, and to provide a scientific basis for developing prevention and control measures against HFMD. Methods The surveillance data of HFMD in Changsha from 2012 to 2018 were statistically analyzed. Concentration and circular distribution methods were used to analyze the seasonal features. Results A total of 205,988 cases were reported in Changsha from 2012 to 2018, with an annual average reported incidence rate of 389.91/100,000. The cases were mainly concentrated in children under 4 years old (83.34%), in which scattered children and kindergarten children accounted for 75.29% and 21.71%, respectively. The concentration ratio M-value was 0.32, indicating seasonality existed. The concentration trend of HFMD circular distribution was r=0.31,α=175.82°(87.02°, 264.62°) (Z=18,648.533, P<0.001). The incidence was mainly reported between March 29 and September 25 and peaked on June 27. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Changsha City in 2012-2018 had a certain seasonal character. HFMD prevention and control should be strengthened among the key population before and during the epidemic period.