| Abstract: | ![]()
BACKGROUND:Important risk factors for cutaneous melanoma (CM) are recognized, butstandardized scores for individual assessment must still be developed. OBJECTIVES:The objective of this study was to develop a risk score of CM for a Braziliansample. METHODS:To verify the estimates of the main risk factors for melanoma, derived from ameta-analysis (Italian-based study), and externally validate them in a populationin southern Brazil by means of a case-control study. A total of 117 individualswere evaluated. Different models were constructed combining the summarycoefficients of different risk factors, derived from the meta-analysis, multipliedby the corresponding category of each variable for each participant according to amathematical expression. RESULTS:the variable that best predicted the risk of CM in the studied population washair color (AUC: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.62-0.79). Other important factors were freckles,sunburn episodes, and skin and eye color. Consideration of other variables such ascommon nevi, elastosis, family history, and premalignant lesions did not improvethe predictive ability of the models. CONCLUSION:The discriminating capacity of the proposed model proved to be superior orcomparable to that of previous risk models proposed for CM. |
