江苏省肾综合征出血热监测与疫情预测指标研究

目的 探讨直接利用肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）定点监测资料对全省疫情进行定性预测的意义,寻找敏感且易获得的预测指标。方法 兼顾不同地理状况,选点开展鼠密度、鼠带毒率、带毒鼠指数、健康人群抗体水平监测;对江苏省１９８６年以来１２年的有关监测资料与人间疫情进行相关性分析。结果 春季室内褐家鼠（Ｒｎ）密度,混合鼠种及Ｒｎ带毒率、带毒鼠指数与春峰疫情有显著性相关关系;秋季野外混合鼠种及黑线姬鼠（Ａａ）密度、

Surveillance of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and studies on its predictive indices in Jiangsu Province]

OBJECTIVE: To study its predictive significance of the direct use of surveillance data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) collected in Jiangsu province, and find an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction. METHODS: A correlation analysis between the HFRS incidence rate and surveillance data collected in the past 12 years since 1986 was applied. RESULTS: There was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and indoor density of rattus norvegicus (Rn), proportions of mixed species of rats and Rn with HFRS virus, indices of mixed species of rats and Rn with virus in the spring Relationship between HFRS incidence rate and densities of outdoor mixed species of rats and Apodemus agrarius (Aa), and proportions of mixed species and Aa with virus was all significant in autumn and winter. And, there was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average density of rats, proportion of rats with virus, index of rats with virus. There was no significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and human inapparent infection rate. The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the spring and indices of indoor mixed species of rats and Rn with virus were 0.8637 and 0.8295, respectively (P < 0.001). And, those between HFRS incidence rate and indices of outdoor mixed species of rats and Aa were 0.7089 and 0. 7258 in the autumn and winter, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the next spring and indices of outdoor mixed species and Aa with virus in the autumn were 0.7118 and 0.7113, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficient of correlation between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average index of rats with virus was 0.9207 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The index of rats with virus was an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction of HFRS, and the density of rats may be the secondary choice.