| Abstract: | The outcome of 138 patients with aplastic anaemia was studied to ascertain whether prognostic factors at the onset of the disease are predictive. Applying four classic prognostic criteria, two groups of patients were identified: (1) those with an absolute granulocyte count of less than 0.5 × 109/l, platelet count less than 20 × 109/l, reticulocyte count less than 15 × 109/l, and non-myeloid marrow cellularity greater than 75% who had 100% mortality in the first three months from the onset of the disease, (ii) patients who fulfilled three or fewer of these criteria who had a 20% three month mortality. The survival of these groups differed significantly (P = less than 0.001). The variable that most closely correlated with prognosis was the number of non-haematopoietic cells in the bone marrow aspirate. When Lynch's prognostic formula for patients with aplastic anaemia was applied to the same group of patients, the correlation with prognosis was less close and the calculations were tedious. The identification of a group of patients with severe aplastic anaemia is important because these patients do not benefit from conventional forms of therapy and alternative approaches such as transplantation and immunosuppression are justified. |
