Childhood predictors of drunkenness in late adolescence among males: a 10-year population-based follow-up study

AIMS: To study childhood precursors of drunkenness frequency among 18-year-old boys in a representative, nation-wide 10-year follow-up study. DESIGN: In 1989, a general population sample of 2,946 8-year-old boys was collected. Three different informant sources were used: parents, teachers and the boys themselves. The follow-up was 10 years later in 1999, when the boys were called up for their obligatory military service at age 18. Information about drunkenness frequency was obtained from 78.3% (n=2306) of the original sample. SETTING: Finland, nation-wide; in 1989 at schools, in 1999 at the obligatory military call-up. PARTICIPANTS: General population sample of Finnish boys born in 1981. MEASUREMENTS: At age 8, the Rutter A2 scale, Rutter B2 scale and Child Depression Inventory (CDI) were used. At age 18, self-reported drunkenness frequency during the previous 6 months was determined. FINDINGS: Of the subjects, 15.0% reported never being drunk from alcohol, 74.6% reported being occasionally drunk and 10.4% reported being drunk at least once a week during the previous 6 months. After adjusting for other variables, teacher's estimate of the child's problem behaviour at age 8 predicted frequent drunkenness in late adolescence. Hyperactive problems predicted both occasional and frequent drunkenness. Conduct problems at age 8 predicted only frequent drunkenness. High teacher-reported scores of emotional problems predicted lower occurrence of drunkenness-orientated alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: The educational system has a potential role in detecting boys at risk of later risk-taking behaviours, such as frequent drunkenness. Early interventions in children with conduct problems and hyperactivity are called for.