丙型肝炎患者外周血丙型肝炎病毒载量自然衰减数学模式的初步分析

目的为研究HCV RNA载量在体外的衰减动力学变化规律，判断可能符合的数学函数关系，建立体外HCV RNA载量衰减的数学模型，模拟体内可能存在的HCV复制能力。方法抽取丙型肝炎患者外周全血4份，抗凝处理后，置于6孔无菌培养板中，在5％ CO2条件下，轻微震荡培养，间隔15min取血做HCV RNA定量分析（Real—time PCR）。HCVRNA定量检测结果通过计算机软件分析，建立HCV RNA载量体外衰减数学函数关系。结果HCV RNA定量结果显示类阻尼振荡下降趋势，计算机分析HCV定量值下降符合指数函数关系：Y=3E＋0．8e^-0.5467x（r=0．9547；其中Y为外周血HCV RNA拷贝变量，X为体外病毒载量衰减的时间变量，E为10的幂指数，e为自然常数；r为相关系数），半衰期约为45min。结论HCV体外病毒载量衰减呈幂指数而非线性下降，半衰期为45min，逐渐下降到很长时间。

Analysis on the decline of hepatitis C virus RNA in the blood using a mathematical model

OBJECTIVE: To establish a mathematical model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) replication and develop a working theory for antiviral therapy in order to understand the dynamics of HCV replication. METHODS: Peripheral blood cells of 4 hepatitis C patients were cultured. Quantities of the HCV were detected every 15 min by real-time PCR. The data were analyzed using SPSS software. A mathematical functional relationship between HCV RNA and the time lapse was established. RESULTS: The quantity of HCV RNA declined and it fell into a mathematical model: Y=3E+0.8e(-0.5467x) (r=0.9547). The estimated virion half-life was 45 min on the average. CONCLUSIONS: The decline of HCV RNA in the blood is not of a linear trend and the HCV RNA lasts a longer time although the speed of the decline is faster than that in vivo.