失代偿期肝硬化短期预后评价

目的]比较MELD评分及Child-Pugh分级对失代偿期肝硬化患者短期预后的评估价值。方法]统计188例失代偿期肝炎硬化患者的MELD评分及Child-Pugh评分。比较不同MELD评分及不同Child-Pugh分级患者3个月的病死率及ROC曲线下面积。统计学方法:χ2检验、t检验。结果]①MELD评分均值,死亡组为25.57±8.55,生存组为19.09±6.33,两组差异有非常显著性意义(t=-2.190,P=0.001)。②Child-Pugh分值均值,死亡组12.07±1.81,与生存组8.90±1.92比较差异有非常显著性意义(t=9.701,P=0.000)。③ROC曲线下面积MELD为0.804,Child-Pugh为0.818,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。提示二者对预后估计的准确性无差异。④死亡组及生存组各项并发症的发病率差异有显著性意义(P=0.000~0.045)。结论]MELD评分及Child-Pugh分级均可对失代偿期肝硬化患者短期预后作出有效判断。肝硬化严重并发症应在肝功评价体系中体现。

Prognostic evaluation for patients with decompensated hepatic cirrhosis

Objective] To compare the value between MELD score and Child-Pugh classification in determining the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatic cirrhosis.Methods] Retrospective data from 188 patients with liver cirrhosis were analyzed.Patients were divided into the survival group and the death group.MELD and Child-Pugh score were calculated.Prediction of mortality for three months were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics(ROC) curve(AUC).Statistical method: t-test and C...