Long-term effect of interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin therapy on incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis

We assessed the efficacy of interferon (IFN) alpha-2b plus ribavirin therapy in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis, and elucidated the risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to determine whether these therapies might reduce the incidence of HCC. One hundred and thirty-two HCV-cirrhotic patients receiving IFN alpha-2b (3 or 5 MU thrice weekly) and oral ribavirin (1,000-1,200 mg/day) for 24 or 48 weeks were analysed. Cumulative incidence of HCC was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic relevance of clinical variables and HCC occurrence was evaluated by univariate analysis with the log-rank test and by multivariate Cox's regression analysis. A total of 116 patients completed the treatment and 73 (55%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that nongenotype 1b (P < 0.001) and low viral load (P = 0.018) were independent variables of SVR. During a median follow-up period of 37 (12-63) months, HCC developed in 11 patients with non-SVR and five with SVR (P = 0.0178), whereas there was no difference between those with transient biochemical response and nonresponse (P = 0.5970). The Kaplan-Meier method also showed that old age (>or=60 years) (P = 0.0034) and genotype 1b (P = 0.0104) were associated with HCC occurrence. Using Cox's regression analysis, non-SVR (odds ratio = 3.521, P = 0.036), male (odds ratio = 6.269, P = 0.011) and old age (odds ratio = 3.076, P = 0.049) were independent significant risk factors contributing to HCC development. Our results suggest that achieving SVR by IFN alpha-2b plus ribavirin therapy may decrease the incidence of HCC in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.