2016-2020年陕西省榆林市人间布鲁氏菌病流行特征与时空聚集性北大核心CSCD

目的分析2016-2020年陕西省榆林市布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)发病的流行特征和时空聚集性,为制订布病防控策略提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2016-2020年陕西省榆林市布病发病数据,进行描述性流行病学分析,同时利用ArcGIS 10.8、GeoDa 1.6、SaTScan 9.4.1软件分别进行三维分析、空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。结果2016-2020年陕西省榆林市共报告布病病例1773例,年均发病率为10.40/10万。病例报告以5-8月为主,病例性别比为3.53∶1(1382/391),年龄以45~64岁人群为主(占60.46%),职业以农民为主(占89.57%)。三维趋势分析显示榆林市布病发病率呈现由北向南、由西向东逐渐升高。空间自相关分析显示,2016-2020年榆林市布病发病率Moran's I值分别为0.4780、0.4440、0.2890、0.3220、0.2603,局部Moran's I系数检验发现榆林市布病发病有2个“高-高”聚集县区和3个“低-低”聚集县区。时空扫描分析显示,2016-2020年榆林市布病发病扫描到1个一类时空聚集区和1个二类时空聚集区,聚集时间为2019年。其中一类聚集区(LRR=57.97,RR=2.49,P<0.001)以米脂县为中心,半径为51.62 km,涉及5个县区。结论2016-2020年榆林市布病呈现明显的时空聚集性,应结合布病发病流行高峰期、发病人群、时空聚集区、羊只存栏量等情况,采取分区域、有重点、人畜同步联防的布病防控策略。

Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering analysis of brucellosis in Yulin City,Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2020

To explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering of brucellosis (brucellosis) in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2020, we collected and analyzed data on brucellosis incidence from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. During 2016-2020, a total of 1 773 cases were reported in Yulin City, with an average annual incidence rate of 10.40 per 100 000. Three-dimensional trend analysis indicated that the incidence of brucellosis in Yulin City gradually increased from north to south, and from west to east. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of the incidence of brucellosis in Yulin City from 2016 to 2019 showed a significant positive spatial correlation, and indicated a "high-high” cluster and “low-low” cluster. The analysis of spatio-temporal scans revealed that the incidence of brucellosis in Yulin City was grouped into one first-class spatiotemporal gathering area and one second-class spatiotemporal gathering area; the gathering time was the year 2019; and the first-class spatiotemporal gathering area (LRR=57.97, RR=2.49, P<0.001) was centered on Mizhi County, with a radius of 51.62 km, involving five counties. On the basis of the results of the above analyses, brucellosis in Yulin City from 2016 to 2020 showed clear spatiotemporal clustering. A regional, focused, and simultaneous joint prevention strategy including humans and animals should be adopted for disease prevention and control, considering the peak time of brucellosis, the population with the disease, the spatiotemporal clustering area, and the number of sheep.