SARS传播动力学及预测模型效果初评

目的 为进一步探索SARS的传播和流行规律及其与预防控制措施的关系；方法 利用数学和传播动力学的方法，建立流行病学数学模型。将人群分为6类，即易感人群、暴露人群、疑似人群、确诊人群、恢复人群与死亡人群。应用天津市的流行资料调整各参数方程并进行拟合和模拟。结果 基于确定性微分方程，对重要的流行参数给出了估计方法，评估疾病流行过程中的干预措施的有效性。结论 模拟天津市SARS的流行情况，并对预防控制措施的执行情况进行评价。提示在保持相应控制措施的情况下，SARS的流行是可以防止和控制的。

Modeling of the transimission dynamics in SARS infection and the evakuation of the effect of model prediction

To further investigate the transmission dynamics in SARS infection and to evaluate the efficacy of public health interventions in SARS control, the mathmatical model was established in the present study, in which 6 subpopulations investigated were divided, namely, susceptible, exposed, suspected, definitely diagnosed, recovered and dead populations. The parameter equations were adjustered by using the data of SARS incidence in Tianjin municipality (administrative region), and results based on the deterministic differential equations as well as the methods of estimations were established. Manwhile, the assessments of the efficacy of intervention measurements implemented in the epidemic process of disease were made. It is concluded that the investigation can appraise the implementation of the preventive measures, indicating that epidemic of SARS can be prevented and controlled under keeping enough public health interventions.