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| 初治涂阳肺结核治愈后近期复发预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 伍小英,谭守勇,张晋昕,梁敏青,陈其琛,刘国标,温文沛,梁国飞,梁国添,罗少霞. 初治涂阳肺结核治愈后近期复发预测模型[J]. 中国防痨杂志, 2010, 32(1): 20-24 |
| 作者姓名： | 伍小英 谭守勇 张晋昕 梁敏青 陈其琛 刘国标 温文沛 梁国飞 梁国添 罗少霞 |
| 作者单位： | 广州市胸科医院； 中山大学公共卫生学院； |
| 基金项目： | 广东省医学科研基金立项课题(编号A2008553); 广州市医药卫生科技一般引导项目课题(编号2007-YB-088) |
| 摘 要： | 目的建立初治涂阳肺结核治愈后近期复发的预测模型。方法采用前瞻性追踪研究方法,对2005年1月1日—2006年12月31日广州市初治涂阳肺结核治愈停药的3 293例患者进行2年随访研究,从临床因素、社会因素探讨影响初治涂阳肺结核治愈后复发的相关因素,建立近期复发的logistic回归模型。结果初治涂阳肺结核治愈后细菌学复发率为4.6%。近期复发预测模型:logitP=-9.546+0.586X1+1.959X6+1.449X10+1.118X15+1.027X16+1.525X18+0.674X22+2.042X23,经评价预测效果较好。结论预测模型的建立为减少肺结核复发提供了科学循证依据,能为结核病疫情控制给予针对性指导。 |
| 关 键 词： | 结核 肺 复发 预测 |
The prediction model for short-term recurrence after cured in initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis |
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| Wu Xiaoying,Tan Shouyong,Zhang Jinxin,Liang Minqing,Chen Qichen,Liu Guobiao,Wen Wenpei,Liang Guofei,Liang Guotian,Luo Shaoxia. The prediction model for short-term recurrence after cured in initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis[J]. The Journal of The Chinese Antituberculosis Association, 2010, 32(1): 20-24 | |
| Authors: | Wu Xiaoying Tan Shouyong Zhang Jinxin Liang Minqing Chen Qichen Liu Guobiao Wen Wenpei Liang Guofei Liang Guotian Luo Shaoxia |
| Affiliation: | Guangzhou Chest Hospital,Guangzhou 510095 China;2.School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080 China |
| Abstract: | Objective To establish a prediction model of short-term recurrence of cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods This research was a prospective longitudinal study.3 293 cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases from Jan.2005 to Dec.2006 from Guangzhou City were followed-up for 2 years.Influencing factors of recurrence of cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis were explored from clinical and social aspects and a logistic regression model for prediction were dev... |
| Keywords: | tuberculosis pulmonary recurrence forecasting |
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