| ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李永红,林玫,董柏青,黄君. ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾预测中的应用[J]. 现代预防医学, 2010, 37(7) |
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| 作者姓名： | 李永红 林玫 董柏青 黄君 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心,南宁,530028 |
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| 摘 要： | [目的]探讨应用ARIMA模型进行细菌性痢疾预测、预报的可行性。[方法]应用SPSS13.0软件分析1990～2008年广西细菌性痢疾月发病数资料,构建ARIMA乘积模型,并预测2009～2010年细菌性痢疾月发病数。[结果]最优乘积模型为ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12,模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值基本吻合,且实际值均在预测值可信区间范围内。[结论]ARIMA模型是一种行之有效的预测方法,能够应用于广西细菌性痢疾流行趋势的预测及疫情的预警、预报,为实施干预提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 细菌性痢疾 预测 ARIMA模型 时间序列分析 |
APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL IN THE FORECASTING OF BACILLARY DYSENTERY |
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| LI Yong-hong,LIN Mei,DONG Bai-qing,et al.. APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL IN THE FORECASTING OF BACILLARY DYSENTERY[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2010, 37(7) |
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| Authors: | LI Yong-hong LIN Mei DONG Bai-qing et al. |
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| Affiliation: | LI Yong-hong,LIN Mei,DONG Bai-qing,et al.(Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Prevention , Control,Nanning 530028,China) |
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| Abstract: | [Objective] To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model for the forecasting and predicting of bacillary dysentery.[Methods] Using the SPSS 13.0 software,the incidence data of bacillary dysentery from 1990 to 2008 in Guangxi were analyzed to construct the ARIMA model and to forecast the monthly number of cases of bacillary dysentery in 2009-2010.[Results] The best model was ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12.The model featured a high forecasting precision.The predictive values coin... |
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| Keywords: | Bacillary dysentery Forecasting ARIMA model Time series analysis |
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