ROC曲线分析在体质指数预测高血压中的应用

目的分析体质指数预测高血压工作特征曲线下面积,观察并找出我国18～65岁成年人理想的预测高血压发病率的BMI界值点。方法利用"中国居民健康与营养调查"数据找出4年高血压新增病例,并计算4年高血压累计发病率,绘制工作特征曲线,观察曲线下面积,计算理想BMI界值点的灵敏度和特异度。结果四年高血压累计发病率为17.2%(男20.3%;女性14.2%,P<0.05);BMI预测高血压ROC曲线下面积男性为0.62,女性为0.61。结论研究建立的理想界值点对预测高血压发病率有着重要的应用价值,其效果有待在实际应用加以进一步验证。

APPLICATION OF ROC ANALYSIS ON PREDICTION OF BODY MASS INDEX FOR HYPERTENSION

Objective To identify the use of body mass index (BMI) to predict the areas under curve (AUC) of hypertension,and to find the optimal cutoff of predicting the incidences of hypertension in Chinese adults. Method Using the data from Nationwide Nutrition and Health Survey to find the new cases of four-years hypertension,and to calculate the four-year cumulative incidence (CI) of hypertension,and operate the receiver operating characteristic (ROC),analyze the AUC and calculate the sensitivity and specificity of optimal cutoff. Results Four-year CI of hypertension were 17.2% (20.3% for men and 14.2% for women),the AUC were 0.62 and 0.61 for men and women,respectively. Conclusion The optimal cut off was applicable in monitoring the incidences of hypertension,and more verification should be carried out in the future when applying this cut off.