Prostate-specific antigen velocity and survival for patients with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The authors investigated whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity was associated significantly with the time to death after randomization among patients with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate carcinoma (HRMPC) who were treated with cytotoxic, cytotatic, or combination therapy. METHODS: The study cohort included 213 men with HRMPC who were treated on 3 prospective, randomized Phase II studies between February 1996 and October 2001. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate whether there was a significant association between PSA velocity and the time to death after randomization, controlling for treatment and known prognostic factors. RESULTS: Increasing PSA velocity was associated significantly with shorter survival after randomization (P = 0.005) controlling for treatment and known prognostic factors. The adjusted hazard ratio for death was 1.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.3-2.5; P = 0.0004) for men who had a PSA velocity > 0.0 ng/mL per month compared with men who had a PSA velocity < or = 0.0 ng/mL per month. Estimates of survival 2 years after randomization for these men were 16% (95% CI, 7-25%) and 44% (95% CI, 35-53%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PSA velocity was associated significantly with the length of survival among men with HRMPC who received cytotoxic, cytostatic, or combination therapy.