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| 时间序列分析法预测高温干旱期间住院病例数量 | |
| 引用本文： | 段芹,余兰英,徐小利,鲁建央,刘达伟,钟朝晖. 时间序列分析法预测高温干旱期间住院病例数量[J]. 重庆医学, 2011, 40(30): 3084-3086. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2011.30.028 |
| 作者姓名： | 段芹 余兰英 徐小利 鲁建央 刘达伟 钟朝晖 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆医科大学公共卫生学院,400016 2. 重庆市第五人民医院,400062 |
| 摘 要： | 目的探讨重庆市局部地区高温干旱期间住院病例数量变化趋势,为本市今后建立与完善高温干旱期间住院病例数量预警系统提供依据。方法通过分析重庆市局部地区高温干旱期间住院病例数量的变化规律,使用时间序列分析法中的ARI-MA模型分析和预测住院病例的变化趋势。结果建立了ARIMA(p,d,q)模型,绝大多数实际值均落在两条预测值的95%置信线内,且该模型进行了短期的预测。结论时间序列分析法用于高温干旱期间住院病例数量变化的研究中具有较好的适应性和适用性,ARIMA(p,d,q)模型能较好的反应并预测重庆市局部地区该期间病例数的变化趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 住院 高温干旱 时间序列 ARIMA模型 趋势预测 |
Time series analysis for prediction of the inpatient-numbers during hot and drought months |
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| Duan Qin,Yu Lanying,Xu Xiaoyang,Lu Jianyang,Liu Dawei,Zhong Chaohui. Time series analysis for prediction of the inpatient-numbers during hot and drought months[J]. Chongqing Medical Journal, 2011, 40(30): 3084-3086. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2011.30.028 | |
| Authors: | Duan Qin Yu Lanying Xu Xiaoyang Lu Jianyang Liu Dawei Zhong Chaohui |
| Affiliation: | 1(1.Department of Epidemiology,Chongqing Medical University,Chongqing 400016,China;2.the Fifth People′s Hospital of Chongqing,Chongqing 400062,China) |
| Abstract: | Objective To investigate the variation trend of the number of inpatients during hot weather and drought period,in order to explore how to build and improve early warning system of the amount of inpatients during hot weather and drought months.Methods Through analyzing the variation regularity of time series,ARIMA(p,d,q)model was used to analyze the dynamic variation of the amount of inpatients.Results The model ARIMA(p,d,q)was established,the vast majority of the actual values fell to the 95% confidence lim... |
| Keywords: | hospitaliztion hot weather and drought time series ARIMA model tendency predication |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |