| 自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张柠,苏学艳,李力. 自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用[J]. 中国医院管理, 2011, 31(10): 6-8 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张柠 苏学艳 李力 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 首都医科大学卫生管理与教育学院 北京100069
2. 石家庄市妇幼保健院河北 石家庄050000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的拟合医疗服务需求时间序列资料的预测模型。方法采用自回归移动平均模型对出院人次进行模型拟合。结果模型拟合得到的最优模型为一阶自回归移动平均模型,模型预测2020年某市三甲医院的出院总人次将为93.88万人次。结论自回归移动平均模型适用于出院总人次时间序列模型拟合,预测结果显示,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,三甲医院出院总人次将会延续2009年以前的上升趋势继续上涨。
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| 关 键 词： | 自回归移动平均模型 医疗服务需求 时间序列分析 |
Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in the Prediction of Medical Service Demand |
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| ZHANG Gui-xiang,SU Xue-yan,LI Li. Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in the Prediction of Medical Service Demand[J]. Chinese Hospital Management, 2011, 31(10): 6-8 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Gui-xiang SU Xue-yan LI Li |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Gui-xiang,SU Xue-yan,LI Li College of Management & Education,Capital Medical University,Beijing,100069,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To fit the prediction model that suit to the time series data of the medical service demand.Meth-ods Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to fit the change of numbers of discharged patients.Re-sults The average numbers which will be 938.8 thousand of discharged patients of A-level tertiary hospital in 2020 were forecasted by this model.Conclusion The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model is applicable to fitting and predicting the time series of medical service demand.... |
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| Keywords: | Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model medical service demand time series analysis |
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