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Evaluating plasma holds in the presence of multiple infections
Authors:Kaplan   Edward H.
Affiliation: 1 Yale School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, Box 208200, New Haven, CT 06520-8200, USA. Email: edward.kaplan{at}yale.edu
Abstract:
To protect plasma supplies, donors are screened for infectiousdiseases. As an added measure of protection, donations are identifiedand stored for a period of time to allow future discard in theevent that an identified donor subsequently tests positive forsome screened disease. Previous models for evaluating such plasmaholds have only addressed the case of a single infectious disease.This paper extends the analysis to the case of multiple infections.Given knowledge of the marginal incidence rates for those infectionschecked, upper and lower bounds for important quantities suchas the probability of interdicting an infectious but undetecteddonation, the expected number of infections interdicted perdonation, and the net economic benefits of the holding policyare developed. Several examples are developed, illustratinghow the models can be used to evaluate the consequences of aplasma hold.
Keywords:Plasma donor screening   holding policy   renewal theory   coinfection   linear programming
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