| 关于Reed－Frost模型的研究和改进 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 梅家模,曾光.关于Reed－Frost模型的研究和改进[J].中华流行病学杂志,1994(2). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 梅家模 曾光 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 江西省卫生防疫站，中国预防医学科学院流行病学微生物学研究所 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 笔者提出了对Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的学术评论，并新建了一种Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的改进模型。该改进模型全面考虑了隐性感染者的产生、传染作用及向免疫者的转化。应用这个模型，模拟了ＮｅｗＥｎｇｌａｎｄ的麻疹流行和中国上海市某保育院的水痘流行，结果颇为理想。该模型包括了基本的流行要因，故能用以解释流行过程，并可帮助流行病学工作者理解隐性感染在传染病流行过程中的作用。
|
| 关 键 词： | Reed－Frost模型，流行，隐性感染 |
Study and Improvement of Reed-frostModel |
| |
| Mei Jiamo,Zeng Guang.,JiangxiProvinial Hygiene and Epidemic Pre-vention Station,Nanchang.Study and Improvement of Reed-frostModel[J].Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,1994(2). |
| |
| Authors: | Mei Jiamo Zeng Guang JiangxiProvinial Hygiene and Epidemic Pre-vention Station Nanchang |
| |
| Institution: | Mei Jiamo,Zeng Guang.,JiangxiProvinial Hygiene and Epidemic Pre-vention Station,Nanchang 330046 |
| |
| Abstract: | he purpose of this paper is to modifythe Reed-Frost theory of epidemics withthe underlying assumptions of the modelincluding the occurrence of inapparent in-fections,and their influence on the course of the epidemic.With this model two epidemics were computed;(1)the Aycock outbreak of measles in a New England boy-boarding school in 1934;(2)the out-break of chickenpox in a Shanghai kinder-garten in 1950.The calculated and ob-served results were well in agreement A substantial improvement in fitness was shown as measured by chi-square tests.As presented,the model offers a rea- sonably good explanation on the occurren-ce of inapparent infections and its effect on the pattern of the disease. |
| |
| Keywords: | Reed-Frost model Epidemic-Inapparent infection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
