根治术大肠癌预后因素和个体预后预测模型的研究

目的寻找影响大肠癌患者根治术后生存的预后因素。方法选取根治术大肠癌原发病例120例,查阅病历及5年以上随访资料。并取病例的存档石蜡块,切片后进行SP免疫组化方法检测p53、C-erbB-2、nm23-H1、Ras四个基因蛋白表达物。结果p53、C-erbB-2、Ras、nm23-H1蛋白在120例大肠癌组织中阳性表达率分别为62.5%(75/120)、25.8%(31/120)、80.0%(96/120)、60.8%(73/120)。将分子生物学标志物与临床病理指标相结合,经Cox单因素分析,在α=0.05水平,结果显示:肿瘤大体分型、组织学分级、浸润深度、淋巴结转移、Dukes‘分期、p53、Ras、nm23-H1为有意义的预后影响因素(P＜0.05)。Cox多因素分析结果显示,在α=0.05水平,Dukes‘分期、p53、nm23-H1是影响大肠癌患者预后的独立指标(P=0.000),其RR值分别为3.06、6.02、0.40。由此建立的预后预测模型为:h(t,x)=h0(f)exp(-0.9269X14 1.1197X10 1.7948X11),其预测预后的灵敏度为79.1%,特异度为83.0%,符合率为80.8%,Kappa值为0.62。结论Dukes‘分期、p53、nm23-H1是影响大肠癌患者根治术后生存重要的预后指标,由此建立的预后预测模型具有较高的信度和效度,可为临床医师对大肠癌患者个体预后结局估计提供有力的工具。

Study on the prognostic factors of colorectal cancer after radical resection and on suggested model for prediction??

OBJECTIVE: To study the factors of colorectal cancer (CRC) after radical resection to provide data predicting the prognosis of the patients. METHODS: 120 cases of CRC were collected in this study. Medical clinical records and 5-year follow-up data were reviewed. Streptavidin-peroxidase immunohistochemical technique was used to detect the expression of p53, C-erbB-2, nm23-H(1) and Ras on formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded sections of CRC from the 120 patients. RESULTS: Results showed that the rates of positive expression of p53, C-erbB-2, Ras and nm23-H(1) were 62.5% (75/120), 25.8% (31/120), 80.0% (96/120) and 60.8% (73/120) respectively in the CRC tissue. All pathological variables and biological markers were analyzed with Cox regression model (alpha = 0.05). Eight distinguished prognostic factors were identified in the univariate analysis as: macroscopic configuration, histology grade, depth of invasion of intestinal, lymph nodes metastasis, Dukes' classification, p53, Ras and nm23-H(1). The results of multivariate analysis (alpha = 0.05) indicated that the independent prognostic factors were Dukes' classification, p53 and nm23-H(1) (P = 0.000), with relative risk of 3.06, 6.02 and 0.40, respectively. A prognostic model: h(t, x) = h(0)(t)exp (-0.9269X(14) + 1.1197X(10) + 1.7948X(11)) was established. Sensitivity, specificity agreement and reliability of the model and Kappa were 79.1%, 83.0%, 80.8% and 0.62, respectively. CONCLUSION: Dukes' classification, p53 and nm23-H(1)seemed to be independent and important prognostic factors. This prognostic model could be used to evaluate the prognosis of patients with CRC by clinicians.