| 灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在我国梅毒发病预测研究中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭海强,曲波,丁海龙,孙高. 灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在我国梅毒发病预测研究中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2010, 17(12): 2397-2399 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭海强 曲波 丁海龙 孙高 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,辽宁,沈阳,110001 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨我国1996-2009年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据全国1996-2009年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:x(1)(t+1)=7.5437e0.206t-6.5437,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.1929,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2010-2012年全国梅毒的报告发病率分别达25.12/10万、30.86/10万、37.92/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合全国梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 梅毒 流行病学 灰色系统GM（1,1）模型 |
Application of Grey Model GM(1,1) on Prediction of Syphilis Incidence in China |
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| GUO Hai-qiang,QU Bo,DING Hai-long,et al.. Application of Grey Model GM(1,1) on Prediction of Syphilis Incidence in China[J]. Practical Preventive Medicine, 2010, 17(12): 2397-2399 |
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| Authors: | GUO Hai-qiang QU Bo DING Hai-long et al. |
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| Affiliation: | GUO Hai-qiang,QU Bo,DING Hai-long,et al.(Department of Hygienic Statistics,School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang 110001,Liaoning,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the trends of syphilis incidence in China during the recent 14 years,to predict the incidence in the short-term future,and to provide a scientific base for reasonable distribution of health resource to prevent and control syphilis. Methods The reported incidence rates of syphilis from 1996 to 2009 were collected to establish GM(1,1) model for prediction.The prognosticating precision was analyzed to evaluate the model. Results The established model was the following: x^(1)(t+1) =7.5437e0... |
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| Keywords: | Syphilis Epidemiology Grey model GM(1 1) |
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