集中度和圆形分布法分析山东省2008~2014年手足口病季节性特征

目的 探讨山东省2008至2014年手足口病发病的季节性分布特征。 方法 选取山东省法定传染病报告系统中2008至2014年手足口病监测数据,进行季节性特征分析。 结果 山东省2008至2014年手足口病年均增长率为22.96%,发病率从35.02/10万增长到121.01/10万。总报告例数中,5~7月报告的病例数占总病例数的51.29%(188 564/367 655)。集中度M值为0.42,手足口病有一定的季节性;圆形分布γ=0.42,(-overα)=185.196°(110.216°,260.176°),P<0.01,即山东省手足口病发病高峰日为6月8日,流行高峰期为3月22日至8月24日。山东省2008至2014年各年的平均角之间差异有统计学意义(F=2 401.14,P<0.01),即各年手足口病高峰日不同。M值和γ值呈高度相关(r=1.000,P<0.01)。 结论 山东省2008~2014年手足口病发病有一定的季节性特征,3~8月为该病的流行高峰期,各年度流行期持续时间不同。

Seasonal characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease in Shandong Province during 2008 and 2014 analyzed with concentration and circular distribution methods

Objective To explore the seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2014. Methods The surveillance data of HFMD in 2008-2014 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease reporting system of Shandong Province to analyze the seasonal characteristics. Results The average annual growth rate of HFMD was 22.96%, rising from 35.02/10 million to 121.01/10 million. Of the total reports, the number of cases reported in May to July accounted for 51.29%(188564/367655). The M value was 0.42, indicating that HFMD had a seasonal tendency. The circular distribution showed γ value was 0.42, (-overα)=185.196° ［(110.216°, 260.176°), P<0.01］, indicating that the peak day was in June 8th, and the epidemic peak was March 22nd to August 24th. There was statistically significant difference in the average angle during 2008 and 2014(F=2 401.14, P<0.01), indicating that the peak day was different in each year. The M value was highly correlated with γ value(r=1.000, P<0.01). Conclusion Hand, foot and mouth disease has a certain seasonal characteristics in Shandong Pro-vince from 2008 to 2014. The epidemic peak is March to August, and the duration of each year is different.