新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征及防控措施评价

【目的】描述新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行病学特征和发展趋势，评价我国及其他国家重点地区防控措施对疫情的影响，为进一步预测疫情发展和制定有针对性的防治措施提供依据。【方法】收集截止到2020年3月30日由全国各省市卫健委，各国病例报告及WHO每日公布的统计数据和已发表论文的数据，并进行整理分析。【结果】疫情呈现暴发流行特点，病例上升速度快。全国新增确诊病例在确定人际传播后13天达到全程流行高峰，高峰持续约1周时间，之后日新增确诊人数逐步下降。目前我国31个省市自治区以及港澳台地区均出现新冠病毒感染者；全国病死率为4.05%，武汉市为5.10%，湖北省（除武汉市）为3.59%；全国平均治愈率93.85%，除港澳台地区各省治愈率均较高，仅上海和内蒙古治愈率现维持在70%以下。为控制疫情，针对人群采取了限制交通和人员流动（1月23日）、集中隔离治疗（2月02日）、普遍症状调查（2月17日）以及入境监测和隔离。采取限制交通和人员流动的措施后武汉新增病例占全国大部分，但是全国除湖北地区由原来的平均日新增确诊520.7例下降到474.4例。在采取医院隔离治疗措施后，其中武汉新增日平均死亡人数由79.4例下降至38.6例，全国新增日平均死亡人数由105.0例下降至47.7例。采取医疗支援措施有建立方舱医院及派出援鄂医疗队，全国每日新增死亡数在这期间增长缓慢。中国、美国和意大利三个国家采取第一步措施距发现第一例病例时间分别是中国3天、美国50天、意大利39天。中国病例增加速度最小，在采取措施后16天达到疫情高峰并约持续8天，美国和意大利分别在采取措施后6天和9天后达高峰，目前仍在平台期未出现下降。【结论】 COVID-19首先在湖北武汉市爆发，全国各省市均有分布，发病率、病死率无明显差异。我国采取的防控措施有效遏制了疫情进展。相对美国、意大利，我国采取防控措施更为迅速效果更为显著。

Analyses of epidemiological characteristics and anti-epidemic measures of coronavirus disease 2019

[objective]To describe the epidemiological characteristics and development trend of covid-19, and to evaluate the impact of prevention and control measures in key areas of China and other countries on the epidemic, so as to provide a basis for further prediction of the epidemic development and formulation of targeted prevention and control measures. [Methods] By March 30, 2020, the national provincial and municipal health commissions, national case reports, daily statistical data and published paper data released by WHO were collected and analyzed. [results] The epidemic situation showed the characteristics of outbreak and the cases increased rapidly. The number of newly confirmed cases in China reached the peak after 13 days from the confirmation of human-to-human transmission, which lasted for about 1 week, and then the number of newly confirmed cases gradually decreased. At present, novel coronavirus infection has been found in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The case fatality rate was 4.05% in China, 5.10% in Wuhan and 3.59% in Hubei province (excluding Wuhan). The national average cure rate was 93.85%, and the cure rate was higher in all provinces except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. To control the outbreak, restrictions on traffic and movement of people were introduced for the population (23 January), intensive isolation treatment (02 February), general symptom investigation (17 February), and entry surveillance and isolation. Wuhan accounted for the majority of new cases in the country after measures to restrict traffic and the movement of people were taken, but the number of new cases in the whole country excluding Hubei dropped from the original average of 520.7 cases per day to 474.4. After the adoption of hospital isolation treatment measures, the average number of newly added daily deaths in Wuhan decreased from 79.4 to 38.6, and the national average number of newly added daily deaths decreased from 105.0 to 47.7. The number of new deaths per day nationwide grew slowly during the period of medical support measures such as the establishment of a hospital in the capsule and the dispatch of a medical team in Hubei province. China took the first steps three days after the first case detected, 50 days in the United States and 39 days in Italy. China had the lowest rate of case increase, which peaked 16 days after the measures were taken and lasted about 8 days, while the United States and Italy peaked 6 days and 9 days after the measures were taken, respectively. [Conclusion] COVID - 19 was first found in Wuhan, Hubei province, and was distributed in all provinces and cities in China. The prevention and control measures conducted in China have effectively contained the progress of the epidemic. Compared with the United States and Italy, prevention and control measures in China were more rapid and effective.