锦州陶瓷厂矽肺患病率预测预报的研究

本文对锦州陶瓷厂1960—1981年在岗接尘工人1066人进行矽肺发展情况调查,收集了矽肺发展和粉尘浓度资料,并计算了接尘的各工种工作时间(以年为单位)和该工种工作地点粉尘浓度(mg/m~3)的积之和的累积接尘量。单位为毫克年,应用工龄累积患病率寿命表,相关回归法,探讨陶瓷作业接尘工人接尘量与矽肺发病的关系。由统计可见工龄与接尘量,工龄与患病率以及接尘量与患病率之间均呈正相关,并用寿命表法预测矽肺的发展趋势。现工龄为1—2年的一批接尘工人预期再接尘20.87年,其患病概率为238‰,这对于评价车间劳动卫生措施的效果,降低车间的粉尘浓度,控制矽肺的发展,保护工人健康具有一定实际意义。

A STUDY OF THE TREND OF SILICOSIS IN JINZHOU CERAMIC FACTORY BY MEANS OF PREJUDICATION

A study of the trend of silicosis was made among 1066 workers exposed to dust from 1960 to 1981 in Jinzou Ceramic Factory.Medical and environmental data were collected. Cumulative dust exposure (mg/years) was estimated by the summation of the products of theaverage yearly dust concentration (mg/m~3) in the workshop and the working time when the workers were exposed to dust.This paper discussed the relation of dust exposure to the incidence of silicosis among the workers of ceramic industry by means of cumulative incidence of different length of service, life table and correlative regression.From this article one can see the positive correlative relation between the length of service and cumulative dust exposure, the length of service and incidence, dust exposure and incidence. Moreover, one can use the life table to estimate the developing tendency of silicosis. Let us say tha among 10000 workers of one or two years of service, the incidence would be 238 % after they continue to be exposed to dust for 20.87 years more, t which will be, to someextent, significang both in theory and practice in evaluating the effect of the sanitary measures taken in the workshop, decreasing dust concentration controlling the development of silicosis, and protecting workers from silicosis.