全国五省市独生与非独生已婚育龄妇女二孩生育意愿的差异分析

目的探讨独生与非独生已婚育龄妇女二孩生育意愿现状及影响因素。方法基于中国五省市(北京市、福建省、陕西省、四川省、甘肃省)940例已婚育龄妇女作为研究对象,其中独生子女育龄妇女(独生组)229例、非独生育龄妇女(非独生组)711例。采用面对面问卷调查,调查两组育龄妇女的一般人口学特征、二孩生育意愿、理想子女数等特征性变量,通过构建单因素及多因素Logistic回归模型分析两组育龄妇女二孩生育意愿的影响因素。结果非独生育龄妇女二孩生育意愿显著高于独生组,差异有统计学意义(59.92%vs 48.91%,χ²=8.57,P=0.003),并且两组育龄妇女在理想子女数的分布也存在显著的统计学差异(χ²=27.92,P<0.001)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,以20~29岁的育龄妇女为参照,年龄在35~39岁的独生组育龄妇女二孩生育意愿明显下降(OR_独生=0.162,95%CI:0.056~0.463),而对于年龄在40~45岁的育龄妇女而言,独生组的二孩生育意愿也显著低于非独生组(OR_独生=0.115,95%CI:0.025~0.540;OR_非独生=0.266,95%CI:0.146~0.484)。以农村地区为参照,非独生组中,居住地为城市的育龄妇女二孩生育意愿(OR_非独生=0.411,95%CI:0.238~0.711)低于居住地为郊区的育龄妇女二孩生育意愿(OR_非独生=0.498,95%CI:0.263~0.943),但相对于独生组而言,居住在城市的育龄妇女二孩生育意愿下降更为明显(OR_独生=0.130,95%CI:0.027~0.630)。以已婚未育妇女为参照,独生组已婚已育妇女的二孩生育意愿显著高于非独生组(OR_独生=6.179,95%CI:2.236~17.076;OR_非独生=1.820,95%CI:1.099~3.015)。以二孩家庭经济负担重为参照,基本能承受二孩抚养负担的独生育龄妇女生育意愿显著增高(OR_独生=2.962,95%CI:1.408~6.229),而对于非独生育龄妇女而言,基本能承受(OR_非独生=3.806,95%CI:2.629~5.511)和完全能承受二孩抚养负担(OR_非独生=4.263,95%CI:2.138~8.498)的二孩生育意愿也显著高于家庭负担重的妇女。此外,相比于农民,非独生组中职业为工人的育龄妇女的生育意愿更低(OR_非独生=0.389,95%CI:0.189~0.801),但在独生组未观察到该效应。除此之外,其余因素对独生/非独生育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿没有显著影响。结论非独生育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿显著高于独生育龄妇女,且年龄、居住地、婚育情况、家庭经济负担是影响独生/非独生育龄妇女生育意愿的独立危险因素。

The analysis on the difference of the second child fertility desire between only child and non-only child-bearing married women in five provinces of China

Objective To explore the current situation and influencing factors of second child bearing willingness of child-bearing married women between the only-child and non-only child.Methods 940 married women at childbearing age in five provinces and cities of China(Beijing,Fujian,Shaanxi,Sichuan and Gansu)were selected as the subjects,which included only child-bearing age women group(229 cases)and non-only child-bearing age women group(711 cases).Face to face questionnaire survey was used to investigate the general demographic characteristics,the second child fertility desire,the ideal number of children and other characteristic variables.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of the two groups of women of childbearing age.Results The non-only child-bearing age women's willingness was significantly higher than that of the only-child group(59.92%vs 48.91%,χ²=8.57,P=0.003),and there were also significant differences in ideal number of children between the two groups(χ²=27.92,P<0.001).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with 20-29 years old women of childbearing age,35-39 years old women of childbearing age in the only child group had a significant decrease in the second child fertility desire(OR_独生=0.162,95%CI:0.056-0.463),while for 40-45 years old women of childbearing age,the only child group's willingness to have a second child was significantly lower than that of the non-only child group(OR_独生=0.115,95%CI:0.025-0.540;OR_非独生=0.266,95%CI:0.146-0.484).Taking rural areas as reference,in the non-only child group,the childbearing age women's second child willingness in living in cities(OR_非独生=0.411,95%CI:0.238-0.711)was lower than that living in suburbs(OR_非独生=0.498,95%CI:0.263-0.943),but compared with the only child group,the childbearing age women's second child willingness living in cities decreased more significantly(OR_独生=0.130,95%CI:0.027-0.630).Compared with married women without child,the child-bearing age married women's second child willingness in the only child group had significantly higher than that non-only child group(OR_独生=6.179,95%CI:2.236-17.076;OR_非独生=1.820,95%CI:1.099,3.015).Compared with the women with heavy family burden,the only child-bearing age women who can basically bear the burden of two children have significantly higher fertility willingness(OR_独生=2.962,95%CI:1.408-6.229),and the second child fertility desire who can basically(OR_非独生=3.806,95%CI:2.629-5.511)and completely bear the burden(OR_非独生=4.263,95%CI:2.138-8.498)of two children was also significantly higher in the non-only group than that of women with heavy family burden.Compared with farmers,the non-only child-bearing age women who were employed as workers had lower fertility intention(OR_非独生=0.389,95%CI:0.189-0.801).In addition,the other factors had no significant influence on the second child fertility desire of the only-child and non-only child.Conclusion The non-only child-bearing age women's willingness was significantly higher than that of the only-child group,and age,residence,marital status and economic burden are the independent risk factors.