株洲市气象因子对手足口病发病的滞后效应研究

目的 分析株洲市气象因子对手足口病发病的影响,为手足口病预防控制工作提供科学依据。 方法 收集2010-2016年株洲市手足口病日发病数据及日气象数据,在描述其数据特征的基础上,采用分布滞后非线性模型,分析气象因子与手足口病发病的关系及其滞后效应。 结果 2010-2016年株洲市共报告手足口病病例53 877例,其中2016年报告病例最多,为12 355例;发病呈现双高峰状态。株洲市气温、风速和日照时数与手足口病发病呈正相关(P<0.05),气压、相对湿度与手足口病发病呈负相关(P<0.05)。以气温18.18 ℃为参照,日平均气温在30.6 ℃,滞后0 d时相对危险度(relative risk,RR)值最高,为1.28(95%CI:1.12~1.46),且有统计学意义(P<0.05);以最低气压1 003.58 hpa为参照,日最低气压在1 032.2 hpa,滞后25 d时RR值最高,为1.68(95%CI:0.97~2.93);以风速3.8 m/s为参照,日均最大风速在0 m/s,滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.17(95%CI:0.92~1.49);以相对湿度74.8%为参照,日均相对湿度在28%,滞后2 d时RR值最高,为1.61(95%CI:0.81~3.17);以日照时数4.18 h为参照,日均日照时数在13 h,滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.06(95%CI:0.97~1.17),以上四项均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。 结论 气象因子是影响株洲市手足口病发病的重要因素,对手足口病发病的影响呈非线性且具有滞后性。

Lagged effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Zhuzhou City

Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhuzhou City so as to provide a scientific basis for HFMD prevention and control. Methods The data regarding daily incidence of HFMD and daily meteorological information in Zhuzhou City during 2010-2016 were collected to describe their characteristics. The distributed lag non-linear model was employed to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence. Results A total of 53,877 HFMD cases were reported in Zhuzhou City from 2010 to 2016, with the most cases in 2016 (n=12,355). The incidence of HFMD showed a double-peak characteristic. HFMD incidence was positively associated with temperature, wind speed and sunshine hours (P<0.05), but negatively correlated with air pressure and relative humidity (P<0.05). Having the temperature of 18.18℃as reference, the daily mean temperature of 30.6℃ and lag of 0 day had the highest relative risk (RR) (1.28, 95%CI:1.12-1.46), with statistical significance (P<0.05). Having the lowest air pressure of 1 003.58hpa as reference, the daily lowest air pressure being 1,032.2 hpa and lag of 25 days had the highest RR (1.68, 95%CI: 0.97-2.93). Having the wind speed of 3.8m/s as reference, the daily maximum wind speed being 0 m/s and lag of 0 day had the highest RR (1.17, 95%CI: 0.92-1.49). Having the relative humidity of 74.8% as reference, the daily mean relative humidity being 28% and lag of 2 days had the highest RR (1.61, 95%CI: 0.81-3.17). Having the daily mean sunshine time of 4.18h as reference, the daily mean sunshine time being 13 hours and lag of 0 day had the highest RR (1.06, 95%CI: 0.97-1.17). No statistically significant difference was found in the above-mentioned four indexes (P>0.05). Conclusions Meteorological factors are important factors affecting HFMD incidence in Zhuzhou City, showing non-linear and lagged effects.