1975-2006年武汉市居民糖尿病死亡率分析及预测

目的分析1975—2006年武汉市居民糖尿病死亡率的变化并进行趋势预测。方法利用1975—2006年武汉市居民死亡资料,对武汉市1975—2006年糖尿病死亡资料进行流行病学分析,并利用灰色动态模型GM（1,1）预测武汉市2007—2012年糖尿病死亡率趋势。结果2006年武汉市居民糖尿病死亡率为19.97/10万,较1975年上升了11.61倍,年平均递增率为8.23%,高于心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病、恶性肿瘤的死亡率增长速度。女性死亡率明显高于男性,男女死亡率之比为0.63∶1。武汉市糖尿病年均高死亡率的前3位均为经济发达的汉口地区,江汉区最高,为11.56/10万,汉南区最低,为3.23/10万。所建立的灰色模型预测方程为Y（t）=26.43e0.07735（t-1）-24.71,预测到2012年武汉市居民糖尿病死亡率将达到34.42/10万。结论武汉市居民糖尿病死亡率上升趋势明显,提示应加强防治力度。

Analysis on Mortality of Diabetes Mellitus in Wuhan during 1975——2006 and Its Trend Forecasting

Objective To forecast diabetes mellitus （DM） mortality trend in Wuhan through the study on the feature of DM mortality during 1975-2006. Methods With 1975-2006 resident death data of Wuhan city, epidemiological method and Grey dynamic model GM （1,1） were introduced to analyze this data and to forecast DM mortalities during 2007-2012. Results DM mortality was 19.97 per 100 000 in 2006, up to 11.61 times compared with it in 1975. The mean annual increasing rate of DM mortality was 8.23% and higher than those of angiocardiopathy and cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease and malignant tumor. DM mortality was much higher among female than male, and sex ratio was 1： 0.63. The highest mean annual DM mortality among Wuhan City was 12.56 per 100 000 in Jianghan district, and the lowest was 3.23 per 100 000 in Hannan district. If no effective measures were taken to prevent its development, DM mortality would rise to 34.42 per 100 000 in 2012 by calculated with the equation that we found and validated （Y（t）=26.43e0.07735（t-1）-24.71）. Conclusion Due to the trend of DM mortality increasing quickly in Wuhan, government should pay more attention to the prevention of DM.Grey dynamic model GM （1,1） may be applied to forecast DM mortality in the near future.