Accurate prediction of fulminant hepatic failure in severe acute viral hepatitis: multicenter study

Background: We have attempted to predict the development of fulminant hepatic failure at the stage of severe acute hepatitis before the onset of coma. This prediction is valuable because it may be used to block the development of fulminant hepatic failure with appropriate medical treatment. Methods: To establish a discrimination formula, we retrospectively compared 13 clinical and laboratory variables in 36 patients with acute viral hepatitis and prothrombin levels of 40% or less of the control value who later developed fulminant hepatic failure with these variables in 12 patients who recovered spontaneously. A prospective study of 58 patients who developed fulminant hepatic failure and 18 who spontaneously recovered confirmed the validity of this formula. Results: In the retrospective study, we established the following discrimination equation: Z = −0.89 + 1.74 × (causal viruses, 1 point for type A or type B in acute hepatitis B virus [HBV] infection, 2 points for others) + 0.056 × (total bilirubin, mg/dl) −0.014 × (cholinesterase, U/ml). A positive Z value indicates that fulminant hepatic failure will develop. In the prospective study, the specificity, sensitivity, predictive accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were 0.833, 0.983, 0.947, 0.950, and 0.938, respectively. Conclusions: The present study indicated that fulminant hepatic failure can be predicted, by a simple discrimination equation, at the stage of severe acute hepatitis. Received: September 4, 2001 / Accepted: May 31, 2002 Acknowledgments. Supported by a grant from the Ministry of Health and Welfare of Japan. Reprint requests to: M. Yoshiba