内蒙古自治区护理人员数量变化及其发展趋势预测

目的:分析护理人员的数量变化,发现其短缺的原因,并对护理人员的发展提出意见及建议。方法:选取2010—2018年内蒙古自治区护理人员的数量作为指数平滑法模型的基础,比较模型的不同条件,筛选出最优模型,预测2019—2030年护理人员的发展趋势。结果:护理人员发展呈现上升趋势,预计在2030年达到13.45万人,但护理人员的增长幅度逐渐趋于缓慢,年增长率降至3.40%。尽管护理人员总量上升,但医护比小,不能按时达到规划要求的1∶1.25。护理人员地区分布不均匀,呈现城市多、农村少的现象。结论:内蒙古自治区护理人员的数量仍有较大缺口,需要考虑医护合作和农村人群的需求。

Prediction of Quantity Change and Development Trend of Nursing Staff in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

OBJECTIVE To analyze the quantity change of nursing staff,to find out the reasons for the shortage of nursing staff,and to put forward some opinions on the development of nursing staff.METHODS The number of nursing staff in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2010 to 2018 was selected as the modeling basis of exponential smoothing method model to predict the development trend of nursing staff from 2019 to 2030.It compared the different conditions of the model and select a optimal model to predict the development trend of nursing staff in 2019—2030.RESULTS The development of nursing staff showed an upward trend,which is expected to reach 134000 in 2030,but the growth rate of nursing staff gradually slowed down,and the annual growth rate fell to 3.40%.Although the total number of nursing staff increased,the health care ratio was small,and the planned requirement of 1:1.25 could not be reached on time.The regional distribution of nursing staff was uneven,showing the phenomenon of more urban areas and fewer rural areas.CONCLUSION There was still a large gap in the number of nursing staff in the district,which needed to consider the cooperation of medical care and the needs of rural people.