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Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease according to changes in metabolic syndrome status
Institution:1. Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No.13 Hangkong Road, Wuhan, 430030, China;2. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, And State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No.13 Hangkong Road, Wuhan, 430030, China;3. Department of Cardiology, Kailuan Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, No.57 Xinhua East Road, Tangshan City, 063001, China;4. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No.38 Xueyuan Road, Beijing, 100191, China;1. Department of Clinical Nutrition, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China;2. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Shanghai, China;3. Department of Nephrology, South Campus, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China;4. Department of Health Management Center, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China;5. Department of Nutritional Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA;1. School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China;2. School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, China;3. Songjiang District Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai, 201600, China;4. Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institution of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;1. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia;2. Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia;3. Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia;4. Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia;5. Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia;1. Graduate Institute of Biomedical Sciences, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan;2. Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan;3. Big Data Center, China Medical University Hospital and College of Medicine, Taichung, Taiwan;4. Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Asia University Hospital and College of Medicine, Taichung, Taiwan;5. Department of Family Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital Hsin-Chu Branch, Hsinchu, Taiwan;6. Department of Laboratory Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan;1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China;2. Center for Real-world Evidence Evaluation, Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Beijing, China;3. Yinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China;4. MRC/BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Strangeways Research Laboratory, Wort''s Causeway, Cambridge, United Kingdom;5. Wonders Information Co., Ltd, Shanghai, China;6. Key Laboratory of Molecular Cardiovascular Sciences (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China;1. Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China;2. Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education and Ministry of Environmental Protection, And State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubation), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China;3. Wuhan Children’s Hospital (Wuhan Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital), Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
Abstract:Background and aimsThe relationship between dynamic changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) status and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been reliably quantified. This study aimed to estimate lifetime risk of CVD and life expectancy with and without CVD according to dynamic MetS status.Methods and ResultsDynamic changes in MetS status were assessed: MetS-free, MetS-chronic, MetS-developed, and MetS-recovery groups. We used Modified Kaplan–Meier method to estimate lifetime risk and used multistate life table method to calculate life expectancy. Participants free of CVD at index ages 35 (n = 40 168), 45 (n = 33 569), and 55 (n = 18 546) years. At index age 35 years, we recorded 1341 CVD events during a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Lifetime risk of 33.9% (95% CI: 26.9%–41.0%) in MetS-recovery group was lower than that of 39.4% (95% CI: 36.1%–42.8%) in MetS-chronic group. Lifetime risk of 37.8% (95% CI: 30.6%–45.1%) in MetS-developed group was higher than that of 26.4% (95% CI: 22.7%–30.0%) in MetS-free group. At index age 35 years, life expectancy free of CVD for MetS-recovery group (44.1 years) was higher than that for MetS-chronic group (38.8 years). Life expectancy free of CVD for MetS-developed group (41.9 years) was lower than that for MetS-free group (46.7 years).ConclusionsRecovery from MetS was associated with decreased lifetime risk of CVD and a longer life expectancy free of CVD, whereas development of MetS was associated with increased lifetime risk of CVD and a shorter life expectancy free of CVD.
Keywords:Metabolic syndrome  Cardiovascular diseases  Lifetime risk  Life expectancy  CT"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0035"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"computed tomography  CVD"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0045"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"cardiovascular disease  DBP"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0055"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"diastolic blood pressure  FBG"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0065"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"fasting blood glucose  HDL-C"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0075"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"high-density lipoprotein cholesterol  HF"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0085"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"heart failure  HR"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0095"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"hazard ratio  MI"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0105"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"myocardial infarction  MetS"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0115"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"metabolic syndrome  MRI"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0125"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"magnetic resonance imaging  SBP"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0135"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"systolic blood pressure  TG"}  {"#name":"keyword"  "$":{"id":"kwrd0145"}  "$$":[{"#name":"text"  "_":"triglyceride
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