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| 基于列线图的肿瘤风险预测及其效果评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 李伟栋,杨丽,邹兴文,代伯峰,王平,张晋昕. 基于列线图的肿瘤风险预测及其效果评价[J]. 肿瘤预防与治疗, 2019, 32(4): 305-310 |
| 作者姓名： | 李伟栋 杨丽 邹兴文 代伯峰 王平 张晋昕 |
| 作者单位： | 广州医科大学广州市妇女儿童医疗中心 妇幼与计划生育信息部 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号:81773545);广东省自然科学基金(编号:2016A030313365)~~ |
| 摘 要： | 目的:基于R软件介绍肿瘤风险预测模型的可视化-列线图的绘制和模型评价。方法:以SPSS软件自带案例乳腺癌生存数据为例,基于R软件包survival,rms拟合Cox回归模型并绘制生存概率风险列线图,用一致性指数(C-index)和校准曲线(calibration plots)评价模型区分度和一致性。结果:模型预测因素包括年龄、孕酮受体状态、淋巴结转移、病理学肿瘤大小。基于模型绘制的列线图评估个体化发病预后风险简单直观,模型一致性指数:0.70(0.62-0.80),校准曲线3年、5年、10年的预测生存概率与实际生存概率基本一致,反映该模型有较高的区分度(Discrimination)和一致性(Accuracy)。结论:基于Cox模型的列线图可通过多种预测因素量化肿瘤发病风险,应用简单直观、使用方便.可以为临床决策提供支持。 |
| 关 键 词： | 肿瘤风险预测 列线图 预测评价 |
Prediction of Tumor Risk Based on Nomograms and Evaluation of Its Effect |
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| Li Weidong,Yang Li,Zou Xingwen,Dai Bofeng,Wang Ping,Zhang Jinxin. Prediction of Tumor Risk Based on Nomograms and Evaluation of Its Effect[J]. Journal of Cancer Control and Treatment, 2019, 32(4): 305-310 | |
| Authors: | Li Weidong Yang Li Zou Xingwen Dai Bofeng Wang Ping Zhang Jinxin |
| Affiliation: | (Maternal and Child & Family Planning Information Department, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China;Women's Health Services, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China;School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China) |
| Abstract: | Li Weidong;Yang Li;Zou Xingwen;Dai Bofeng;Wang Ping;Zhang Jinxin(Maternal and Child & Family Planning Information Department, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China;Women's Health Services, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China;School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510623 , Guangdong, China) |
| Keywords: | Tumor Risk Prediction Nomogram Prediction and validation |
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