Spatial response of coastal marshes to increased atmospheric CO2

The elevation and extent of coastal marshes are dictated by the interplay between the rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR), surface accretion by inorganic sediment deposition, and organic soil production by plants. These accretion processes respond to changes in local and global forcings, such as sediment delivery to the coast, nutrient concentrations, and atmospheric CO₂, but their relative importance for marsh resilience to increasing RRSLR remains unclear. In particular, marshes up-take atmospheric CO₂ at high rates, thereby playing a major role in the global carbon cycle, but the morphologic expression of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, an imminent aspect of climate change, has not yet been isolated and quantified. Using the available observational literature and a spatially explicit ecomorphodynamic model, we explore marsh responses to increased atmospheric CO₂, relative to changes in inorganic sediment availability and elevated nitrogen levels. We find that marsh vegetation response to foreseen elevated atmospheric CO₂ is similar in magnitude to the response induced by a varying inorganic sediment concentration, and that it increases the threshold RRSLR initiating marsh submergence by up to 60% in the range of forcings explored. Furthermore, we find that marsh responses are inherently spatially dependent, and cannot be adequately captured through 0-dimensional representations of marsh dynamics. Our results imply that coastal marshes, and the major carbon sink they represent, are significantly more resilient to foreseen climatic changes than previously thought.Coastal marsh extent and morphology are directly controlled by rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR) and the soil accretion rate, the latter associated with inorganic sediment deposition and organic soil production by plants. Previous studies observed that CO₂ fertilization increases marsh plant biomass productivity through increased water use efficiency and photosynthesis (1), and hypothesized that, as a consequence, marsh resilience should increase via increased organic accretion (2, 3). However, this hypothesis has not yet been tested, and the observed increased plant productivity in response to the CO₂ fertilization effect has not been translated into its actual geomorphic effects. In fact, direct CO₂ effects on vegetation and marsh accretion (as opposed to its indirect effects, e.g., via the increase in temperature) have not yet been incorporated into marsh models, and their importance relative to other leading forcings of marsh dynamics (e.g., inorganic deposition, RRSLR, nutrient levels) remains unknown. Here we use existing data and a 1D ecomorphodynamic model to assess the direct impacts of elevated CO₂ on marsh morphology, relative to ongoing [e.g., RRSLR, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC)] and emerging [nutrient levels (4–6)] environmental change.