用时间序列模型预测2015年浙江妇幼人口的健康水平

目的预测2015年浙江妇幼人口的健康水平，针对影响健康的危险因素，采取有效的干预措施和卫生策略，为浙江省卫生事业发展“十二五”健康战略计划…提供理论依据。方法采用时间序列回归分析方法，综合2000一2010年浙江各家医院监测的几个主要指标：人均期望寿命、人口出生率、婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率数据建立预测模型，经统计学检验和评价后再进行预测。结果分别获得了2015年各指标的回归模型和预测值，人均期望寿命、人口出生率采用复合曲线回归拟合法：人均期望寿命将为78．24岁，其95％可信区间为77．59—78．89岁；出生率为10．25‰、其95％可信区间为7．59‰～10．63‰；人口自然增长率5．50‰，其95％可信区间为3．15‰～6．68‰。婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率，采用对数曲线回归法：婴儿死亡率将为5．52‰，其95％可信区间为4．02％e～5．31‰。5岁以下儿童死亡率为7．41‰，其95％可信区间为4．53‰～7．95‰；孕产妇死亡率5．90／10万，其95％可信区间为1．17／10万～8．53／10万。各预测方程模型的决定系数R2、方差齐：陛检验F值，因素及常量回归系数值，各指标的界值P均〈0．05，有显著的统计学差异。结论预测方法、结果可信可行，浙江卫生事业管理井然有序；妇幼卫生健康管理，能预期完成浙江卫生“十二五”健康战略规划。

The prediction of the health status of women and children in 2015 in Zhejiang Province with time series model

Objective To predict 2015 Zhejiang maternal and child health status, to take effective interventions and health policy according to the risk factors influencing the health, and to provide a theoretical basis for Zhejiang＇s twelfth five-year plan health strategic plan. Methods With the use of time series regression analysis method, predictive models were built according to the several key indicators of Zhejiang hospitals from 2000 to 2010： the average life expectancy, birth rate, infant mor- tality, mortality of children under 5 years old and maternal mortality data, and predictions were made after statistical tests. Re- suits The regression models and predictive values of the indicators for 2015 were achieved respectively. The average life expect- ancy and the birth rate were got with the use of composite curve regression fitting. The life expectancy would be 78.24, with the 95% confidence interval 77.59 -78.89 years old. The birth rate would be 10.25‰, with the 95% confidence interval 7.59 ‰ ~ 10.63 ‰; the natural population growth rate would be 5.50‰, with its 95% confidence interval 3.15‰ ~ 6.68 ‰. Infant mortality, the mortality of children under the age of 5and maternal mortality rates were got with logarithmic curve regression meth- od. Infant mortality would be 5.52‰, with the 95% confidence interval 4.02‰ - 5.31‰. Mortality rate of children under 5 years would be 7.41‰, with the 95% confidence interval 4.53‰ -7.95 ‰. Maternal mortality rate would be 5.90/100 thou- sand, with its 95% confidence interval 1.17 -8.53/100 thousand. There was significant statistical difference because of the de- cision coefficient R2 , homogeneity of variance test F value, factor and constant regression coefficient of the prediction equation models, with the indicators of P value 〈0.05. Conclusion Conclusion Prediction method and the results are credible, which shows that Zhejiang health management is in order and it can be expected to complete the twelfth five-year Zhejiang health strate- gic planning for maternal and child health administration.