Validating the functional capacity index: a comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

BACKGROUND: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. METHODS: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. RESULTS: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor (kappa = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor (kappa = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. CONCLUSION: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.