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| 肾综合征出血热监测点发病流行强度与曲线拟合模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 郭秀花,曹务春,罗艳霞,胡良平,陈化新. 肾综合征出血热监测点发病流行强度与曲线拟合模型[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2003, 19(3): 277-279 |
| 作者姓名： | 郭秀花 曹务春 罗艳霞 胡良平 陈化新 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京军医学院数学教研室,北京,100071 2. 军事医学科学院微生物流行病研究所 3. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染控制所 |
| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金重点项目 (NO .70 2 1 0 0 4 ) |
| 摘 要： | 目的 预测全国肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)发病流行强度和流行规律。方法 对 3 1个国家级HFRS监测点 18年来发病率逐年划分发病流行强度等级 ,并利用SAS6 12版进行多项式曲线拟合 ,建立数学模型。结果 总体上划分为 5个高发病区、9个中发病区、17个低发病区 ;并分别得到了 2 4个监测点 18年的发病率和 5个监测点 9年的发病率多项式曲线拟合模型 ,其中有 2 6个监测点模型检验 ,P <0 0 5。结论 1994和 1995年是发病高峰 ,大部分地区在 2 0 0 0年前后有上升的趋势 ;对HFRS发病率进行多项式拟合是较好的模型 |
| 关 键 词： | 监测点 肾综合征出血热 流行强度 拟合多项式 流行病学 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0580(2003)03-0277-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-07-18 |
Epidemic strength and curve fitting models for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome |
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| GUO Xiu-hua,CAO Wu-chun,LUO Yan-xia,et al.. Epidemic strength and curve fitting models for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2003, 19(3): 277-279 | |
| Authors: | GUO Xiu-hua CAO Wu-chun LUO Yan-xia et al. |
| Affiliation: | GUO Xiu-hua,CAO Wu-chun,LUO Yan-xia,et al.Institute of Microbiology and Epidemilogy |
| Abstract: | Objective To predict the epidemic strength and tendency for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS).Methods Data on HFRS incidences of 31 national surveillance spots from 1982 to 1999 were analyzed by epidemic strength classification and polynomial fitting.Results Five high-rate areas,9 medium-rate areas,and 17 low-rate areas were identified.Data on incidences of 24 surveillance spots for 18 years,and incidences of 5 surveillance spots for 9 years were used to fit polynomial models.Model tests of 26 surveillance spots were obtained with P<0.05.Conclusion In 1990's,the highest rates wre found in 1994 and 1995,and the incidence rates showed an increase around 2000 in most areas.Polynomial fitting was a good method for HFRS incidences. |
| Keywords: | hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic strength polynomial fitting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |