运用混合分布模型探讨江苏省一般人群麻疹抗体水平分布

目的]利用混合分布模型研究江苏省一般人群麻疹抗体水平分布及控制措施。方法]人群抗体水平基本情况采用方差分析法,运用混合分布模型拟合江苏省2009年一般人群麻疹血清学调查数据,估计各水平参数及所占比例。结果]全省麻疹抗体水平性别间无差异,地区、年龄组间差别有统计学意义。混合分布模型将全省一般人群抗体水平拟合为阴性、阳性、强阳性水平3类。具体到各年龄组,≤7月龄组阴性水平比例达49.32%,8月龄～4岁组和20～29岁组阴性水平比例分别为5.44%、6.11%。8月龄～4岁组强阳性水平所占比例最大,达18.58%。结论混合分布模型能够较好地判别麻疹抗体阴性水平和阳性水平,并能够对阳性水平进一步分类,从而为控制、消除麻疹提供依据。

APPLICATION OF MIXTURE MODELS IN ANALYSIS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF MEASLES ANTIBODY IN GENERAL POPULATION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Objective]To study the distribution of measles antibody in general population with mixture model after the supplementary immunization activities in Jiangsu province.Some strategies were also offered for the measles control and eliminations.Methods]An ANOVA method was applied to the survey about baseline of the measles antibody,the mixture model was applied to the data of sero-epidemiology in general population in Jiangsu province.Results]There were significant differences among the areas,age groups except sexes.The antibody distribution over the whole province was divided into 3 components:negative,positive,strong-positive.The proportions of negative levels were 49.32%,5.44%,6.11% in the younger than 7 months,8months-4 years,and 20-29 years,respectively.The proportion of strong positive level was 18.58%.Conclusion]The mixture model can distinguish the negative level and positive level appropriately,and could further classify the positive level,which may benefit for the measles control and eliminations.