A decision tree for early differentiation between obstructive and non-obstructive jaundice

We present a method for early differentiation between obstructive and non-obstructive jaundice. On the basis of 14 variables (clinical data and clinical chemical tests, all available within 48 h) a simple decision tree or flow chart has been constructed. The diagnostic yield was as follows: 857 of 982 consecutive jaundiced patients (87%) in a data base and 98 of 108 patients in an independent test sample (91%) were correctly classified. Decision trees for the differentiation between benign or malignant causes within the obstructive group and between acute or chronic causes within the non-obstructive group are also presented. The resulting four-way classification was correct for 77% of the patients in the data base and for 72% of the patients in the test sample. The decision trees are compared with previous methods founded on Bayes' rule and logistic discrimination. The decision trees enable a quick and reliable classification of jaundiced patients, thus providing a valid basis for rational planning of the further diagnostic study.